The Aam Aadmi's Common Sense...

In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the electorate comprising aam aadmis and aam ladies has an important decision to make; both individually and collectively. Our decisions as voters will either haunt us for the next 5 years (or more) or spark the beginning of a turnaround in the nation’s fortunes. This piece attempts only to analyse and address the dilemma of the common voter and is meant neither to promote or glorify nor to criticise or run down any political party or person.

As we near the poll dates, no single party or pre-poll alliance seems to have a realistic chance to cross the magic number of 273 in the Lok Sabha of 545 seats. The biggest concern to any government formation is a hung parliament. Parties make claims of achieving a majority in public to rally their troops, but remain skeptical in private. In case of a fractured mandate, closed door negotiations for cobbling together a compromise government will commence and the principles of honesty and integrity which all parties swore by during their election campaigns will be ‘kept on hold’. By accommodating too many incompatible constituents, the government’s hands would be tied behind its back as it will need consensus of coalition partners for anything it plans to do. It is therefore critical that a single party or combination is voted to power and that too, with a reasonable majority. But with 545 constituencies across 29 States and elections spread over a five week period, it is impossible to predict how the electorate would vote.

An interesting factor is that these elections will have an estimated 15 crore first-time voters; primarily youngsters. Thanks to the social media there is significant awareness in the younger generation about the ground realities and issues facing the nation. They are also smart enough not to blindly support a particular party or a leader. The extent of voter turnout is also critical for an election. When people have strong sentiments – positive or negative – about the incumbent government or other burning issues, they usually step out to vote in large numbers. In such cases, their votes are also likely to be concentrated in a specific direction and not scattered. A lower voter turnout usually benefits the incumbent government and vice versa.

Coming to the contestants, these elections have four major ones… Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Third Front and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal. Most of the other parties are regional parties or fence sitters who will cling on to any combination that forms the government.

The UPA is unlikely to return to power thanks to its never ending list of scams, policy-paralysis, sheer high-handedness and brazenness. People seem to have grown weary of the UPA’s misrule and are anxious for a change. Even in their few months in power, as many as six scams have been exposed by the media! The first family of the Congress has also been involved in controversies which the UPA leaders either defend or deny. And all through this, we haven’t heard anything from the PM, who has silently presided over this government over the last 10 years.

The reluctant prince is making all the right noises, to appeal to the masses that he is the agent of change the nation desperately needs. But while he preaches sermons of honesty and makes lofty promises, his party continues its merry ways and practices something altogether different! He has always shirked executive responsibility and has no administrative experience. He finally agreed to become PM in a highly improbable UPA-3, but his first TV interview in 10 years may actually end up discouraging people from voting for the UPA!

The Third Front is a disjointed combination of parties with very little in common, who have joined forces ostensibly to keep the corrupt Congress and the communal BJP away from power. However, most of these parties have at some time in the past, aligned with governments led by the Congress or BJP. The Third Front has more generals than soldiers and each party leader nurses a secret but impractical desire to become PM. With only 100 odd MPs in the present Lok Sabha, it is unfair to expect them to muster 272+ seats. And even if they somehow manage it – with outside support – it is anybody’s guess how long they can stay together, given their internal contradictions.

The Third Front is therefore an unrealistic alternative, being incapable of mustering the numbers to offer a stable government. The Third Front can hope to form the government only if the UPA is routed (like in 1989) and offers them outside support to keep the NDA out. The stability of such a government will always be suspect, with the Damocles’ sword of withdrawal of support hanging over their heads (like in 1990-91). And one hasn’t yet attempted to fathom the quality of governance this motley group can jointly offer!

The people whole heartedly supported the AAP as a party with honest intentions, echoing the common man’s voice against corruption and bad governance. Their courage in taking on the big daddies of politics inspired the working class and younger generation to join or support them. AAP made a stunning debut in the Delhi assembly elections, knocking out many heavyweights. But within two months, they resigned and abdicated their responsibility towards the people of Delhi. However, AAP is confident that its selfless act of giving up power would benefit them in the Lok Sabha elections. Time will tell if they are proven right.

AAP is still a fledgling party without a deep and wide organisational network in many States. So while AAP will certainly make a debut in the Lok Sabha, it cannot be expected to win 272+ seats in these Lok Sabha elections. AAP will surely eat the votes of mainstream party candidates, leading to a few tight contests or upsets. But having contested the elections on the issue of corruption of ALL political parties, AAP won’t align with any other party, as they had initially declared in Delhi. So unless they change their stand, AAP won’t play a role in government formation.

Nevertheless, AAP should continue its good work on the ground more responsibly, without the histrionics and public relations gimmicks. AAP’s constant criticism of everyone in their way - at times without credible evidence - gives them the image of person who claim to know the way but who cannot drive the car. India cannot afford failure of AAP as an experiment of change and one can only hope that in the years to come, AAP will consistently and significantly increase its tally to be able to influence decision making on important legislations affecting the common man.

And now we come to the NDA. Narendra Modi, NDA’s PM candidate, is a strong personality with a long track record as Chief Minister of Gujarat. His detractors routinely challenge the development in Gujarat and blame him of fudging the data. The UPA, with all the government databases and machinery at its disposal could easily have called Modi’s bluff, but haven’t been able to do so for over 10 years. That surely means something, right?

The UPA and others still blame him for the Gujarat riots despite the Courts expressing a contrary view. All these years till the Court’s ruling, they kept saying that the law will catch up with Modi, but now continuing with their rant are questioning the Court ruling itself. They also say Modi is a polarising figure who won’t practice inclusive politics and the minorities won’t feel safe and secure. For them, there isn’t much difference in ‘inclusive politics’ and ‘vote bank politics’. But the question to be asked is whether 66 years after independence is not adequate for previous governments to bridge the social and economic gaps between the various communities?

Modi is perhaps the most charismatic and articulate leaders in the BJP and has tremendous mass appeal. He is often criticised for his dictatorial attitude, but single mindedness of focus and some amount of bull dozing your way is at times necessary for successfully completing any formidable task. If Gujarat has made some progress under a ‘dictator’ like Modi, it is an experiment worth implementing at the Centre. Today India needs a stable government led by a strong and decisive leader who commands respect at home and incapable of being taken for granted by other nations, especially the unfriendly ones. He should ‘rule’ as well as ‘govern’ with an iron hand and lead India to becoming a ‘welfare state’. Other than Modi, there isn’t any leader who answers that description. I would be happy to be corrected on this.

Once we convince ourselves that no one is in politics for selfless public service, ‘whom to vote for?’ becomes more of a pragmatic decision of making a choice based on assessment of the prevailing circumstances and alternatives available. The NDA is not exactly God's gift to India, but seems to be the best option available today.